Nebraska Fisher-Osborne U.S. Senate race kicks off • Nebra

OMAHA — Nebraskans who grew up in an era of Republican dominance are accustomed to sleepy statewide races decided by Republican primaries. But this fall’s airwaves hint at something different: a U.S. Senate race with two candidates vying for ad time.

Local political observers still expect Sen. Deb Fisher, R-Lincoln, to survive a tougher-than-expected challenge from Omaha’s nonpartisan labor leader Dan Osborne. But Republicans and Democrats across the country are already paying attention.

U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska speaks at a business forum in Ashland, with, from left, Sen. Pete Ricketts, Rep. Adrian Smith Adrian Smith, Rep. Mike Flood and Rep. Don Bacon listened. (Aaron Sandford/Nebraska Examiner)

One reason is that Heartland Resurgence invested nearly $480,000 in ads attacking Osbourne. McConnell and other big Republican donors to Senate campaigns have historical roots.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee also recently partnered with Fischer to purchase $172,000 worth of advertising.

In swing states, national Republicans spending at least $500,000 on a Senate race would hardly be considered a blip. In Nebraska, Republicans hold a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage over Democrats, which raises eyebrows.

Democrats and Republicans familiar with Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race say they haven’t seen such a large outlay of outside money since at least 2012, when Fisher defeated former Democratic U.S. by 16 percentage points Senator Bob Kerry.

Republicans are already dealing with competitive Senate races this year in several other states, including Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Texas, Florida and Arizona. This spending is even more prominent this year.

Dan Osborne, independent

Increased advertising spending

Until recently, Fisher’s spending on radio and digital advertising was more consistent over time than Osborne’s. But Osborne’s spending soared again this week, outnumbering her by almost 3-to-1.

Close-up of election voting button with “2024” written on it.

The latest ad spending statistics compiled by the Examiner based on campaign records show that Osborne and his allies spent more than $3.06 million on ads, while Fisher and his allies spent more than $2.7 million.

“The ad spending is a strong signal that both sides think this is going to be a close race,” said Donal-Gene Patton, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “I’m a Republican at Nebraska. California has never seen this level of campaign advertising.”

Osborne and his campaign interpreted the decision by national Republicans as an acknowledgment of what Osborne’s camp has long argued is that his efforts to campaign as a working-class candidate outside the major parties are working.

Fisher and her campaign believe the report state media Polls show a race is coming, which conservative Nebraskans don’t understand. Her campaign remains confident she will win re-election.

U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Nebraska.

Polls show close race

Latest polls Shows a close match This week comes from SurveyUSA and is funded by the Osborne Campaign. It surveyed 558 likely Nebraska voters Sept. 20-23 using cellphones, landlines and other digital devices.

Nebraska U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborne speaks during a news conference at a Chalco Hills area garage on Tuesday. (Aaron Sandford/Nebraska Examiner)

The results were so close that pollsters couldn’t tell which candidate was ahead. The results showed Osborne leading 45%-44%, well within the poll’s 4.8% margin of error. This is the sixth publicly released poll showing the race is competitive.

The Fisher campaign has previously discussed its internal polling showing her leading by double digits, but they have not yet released an updated poll.

Fischer’s campaign issued a statement about Osborne’s polling, reiterating her view that Osborne is a Democrat in sheep’s clothing. It noted his donors’ ties to Democrats and progressives and suggested he had previously “liked” social media posts about Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a progressive independent who Caucus with Democrats.

Fisher cites an interview with Osborne Political website Semafor In it, he said part of the immigration solution is to grant legal status to people who have lived in the country for decades, saying “it’s time for them to join Social Security.”

“There is nothing independent about Dan Osborne,” Fisher said in a statement. “We believe that as Nebraskans learn more about who Dan Osborne is and what he represents, they will know he is not the right fit for Nebraska.”

On Thursday, some Nebraskans received negative text messages about Osborne, including one that called him a “fake Democrat!” The text suggested Osborne would help Democrats take control of the Senate and called him “Bernie.” Brothers and not ordinary people”.

Osborne responds

In a campaign statement, Osborne dismissed external advertising as “slanderous” and criticized Fisher for relying on external advertising funded by groups linked to party leader and billionaire Peter Singer, whose hedge The fund invested in Cabela’s and forced the company to merge out of Sidney, Nebraska.

His campaign this week ran a TV and digital ad that featured a woman who was supposed to represent Fisher wearing a NASCAR-style jacket covered in patches from her top donors, calling her At the mercy of special interest groups.

“My campaign is bringing together people of all backgrounds in our state who are tired of a two-party system that gets nothing accomplished,” Osborne said in a statement. “Now, those who are paying for Fisher are Corporate donors are lying to me.”

Campaign cash illustration. (Getty Images)

According to statistics, as of the end of June, Fisher’s campaign had raised more than $6.24 million and had nearly $3 million in cash on hand. OpenSecrets.orgtracking federal campaign finance. Osborne raised $1.64 million and listed $650,000 in cash on hand.

open secret Track external spending Showed $1.6 million in outside spending to support Osborne and $479,000 to attack him.

Most of Osborne’s outside aid came from the Retired Career Politicians PAC ($1.45 million) and the Nebraska Public Safety Railroad ($190,000). Both groups have received significant donations from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based outside group that often supports Democratic causes.

Paul Landow, a retired political scientist at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, said he doesn’t yet know how to explain the rise in state interest and spending in the ruby-red Nebraska Senate race, but he said “That means something, for sure.”

He said that likely means Republicans across the country are nervous as candidates like Fisher continue to see polls showing that in a year when Republicans believe they should be able to regain control of the Senate, polls show Competition is fierce.

Republicans may also want to stem Osborne’s momentum before major Democratic donors see how cheap Nebraska’s media market is and decide to invest in the campaign, making it more competitive during the campaign.

“Ultimately, I still think Fisher won,” Lando said. “But he’s obviously gotten a competitive game out of it and he’s getting a lot of attention.”