Heading to Election Day to take control of the U.S. House and Senate

WASHINGTON — The country’s next president will need a friendly Congress to realize their policy dreams, but with just weeks until Election Day, control of the House and Senate remains largely uncertain and the outcome Will there be a three-party trifecta in the nation’s capital.

Recent predictions favor a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, an already deeply divided chamber that is certain to be nearly evenly divided again in the next Congress.

Even as Vice President Kamala Harris injects a surge of energy into the Democratic Party, forecasters still say the winner in the House of Representatives is still up in the air.

“The House is very close and very competitive, and it really could go either way. I’d say the same about the presidential race,” said Kyle Kondick, editor-in-chief of the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Four told state newsrooms.

A “district-by-district battle feast”

Control of the 435-seat House of Representatives remains an open question, with hotly contested races in seven battleground states and states that will almost certainly have no bearing on who wins at the top of the ballot.

Election forecaster Sabato currently lists nine Republican seats in about 30 competitive races as “to be determined” for the party, meaning Republican incumbents will be in tight races.

Republicans hold a slim majority in this Congress, with Democrats needing only a net gain of four seats to gain control.

“It’s really on the razor’s edge,” Kondik said. “You know, it’s crazy that we only got 222 seats in two elections in a row. You know, to have such a small majority two times in a row is very rare in history – unprecedented.

“Typically one side gets the bigger advantage and I think both sides view this as a zone-by-zone battle fest.”

Sabato’s Rating adjusted Five races on Thursday, including Democrats Rep. Mary Pertola Alaska moved from the safer “lean Democratic” to the “swing” category. Kondik also pushed the race of Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., from “swing” to “leaning Republican.”

“Probably the biggest one is Pertola, and then there’s McLaurer, who holds one of the bluest seats in the Republican Party, but I moved him to ‘Lean Republican.’ It’s clear to me that he’s in a good position location,” Kondik said.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s fundraising arm for House races, announced in June a nearly $1.2 million ad purchase in Alaska. The group launched a new ad in the state this month accusing Pertola of not supporting veterans.

always about pennsylvania

In addition to Pertola, Condick named nine other Democratic incumbents in nearly 40 competitive races as unpredictable candidates.

One of the undecided seats is the one currently held by Rep. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania, a key swing state in the presidential race. Cartwright’s Republican challenger, Rob Bresnahan, took over an electrical contracting company in northeastern Pennsylvania from his grandfather.

Democrats are investing in the seat: Cartwright is running a new ad featuring union staffers praising him, and just last week Harris hosted a rally in the district, including Scranton .

But the NRCC believes they have a good chance of unseating him.

Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the North Carolina NRCC, said Breshnahan’s company is a “union shop.” “That way he can talk about unions. He’s a good candidate for us.

“Matt Cartwright is in trouble,” Hudson said on the conservative “Ruthless Podcast” on September 12.

“I think the way we are structured, the types of candidates we recruit across the country, from Maine to Alaska, from Minnesota to Texas, regardless of the vote ranking, we will Get a seat.

Van Alden targeted in Wisconsin

But Sabato also flipped three seats in Democrats’ favor Thursday.

Kondik moved Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden from the safe “likely Republican” category to the weaker “lean Republican” category.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sees “significant opportunity” in Van Alden’s district. The Republican congressman who represents central and western Wisconsin is known for his profanity break out Photos of the Capitol Rotunda on the Young Senate page.

Democrats are running challenger Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner, in hopes of unseating him.

“We have an incredible candidate in Rebecca Cooke (against) one of the most extreme Republicans in the House, and that says a lot,” DelBene told a conference call Monday. reporter.

“We have put Rebecca Cook on our red and blue lists and are strongly supporting her campaign. She’s doing a great job and it’s absolutely a priority for us,” DelBene said, referring to the DCCC getting A list of 30 candidates supported by additional fundraising.

DelBene said she was confident in Democrats’ chances of flipping the House, citing ample funding and renewed interest.

“We’re seeing tremendous enthusiasm across the country. We’re seeing people, more and more, volunteering, knocking on doors, making phone calls,” she said.

NRCC chair calls Democrats ‘flooded’ with cash

Erin Covey serves as a House analyst for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Wrote After Harris was elected on September 5, the Democratic Party’s prospects became brighter, although November is still a close call.

“Bipartisan polls now essentially show Harris’s lead in every House district in 2020 being equal to or within a few percentage points of Biden’s,” Covey wrote.

The NRCC has taken notice. In an interview with the “Ruthless Podcast,” Hudson likened Harris’ emergence as the new Democratic presidential nominee to a “bloodless coup” and said the enthusiasm she has sparked is causing concern among Republicans. After Biden withdrew at the end of July, Democratic representatives nominated Harris to run for the Oval Office in accordance with party rules.

“You know, a lot of people, even Democrats, are not willing to vote for Joe Biden. With Kamala’s election, we’re seeing Democrats come back home and be enthusiastic,” Hudson said.

Hudson said he’s also concerned about Democratic fundraising numbers.

“The one thing that keeps you up at night is Democratic money. There’s a flood,” Hudson said. “In the second quarter of this year, I raised the most money we’ve ever raised as a committee, and the Democrats raised another $7 million. I mean, they just keep coming. It’s like the Terminator.

“But we don’t have to match them across the board,” Hudson said. “We have to make sure we have the resources we need. So we have to keep up with our pace.

The DCCC announced Friday that it raised $22.3 million in August, bringing its total raised this election cycle to $250.6 million.

Senate map tilts Republican

Republicans are getting closer to flipping the Senate in this year’s election thanks to a map that favors Republican incumbents and puts Democrats on the defensive in several states.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is widely expected to win his Senate race, adding to the number of seats Republicans hold on to in Florida, Nebraska and Texas. 50 pcs.

But Democrats will need to win in several challenging states if they want to retain their majority, including Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as in A 50-50 tie was broken under a Democratic presidency.

A Democratic victory appears increasingly less likely, though not entirely impossible.

Montana Sen. Jon Tester is hoping to defeat Republican challenger Tim Sheehy for re-election. The state shifted from a “swing” state to a Republican-leaning state.

In a rating change earlier this month, the Cook Political Report wrote that several “public polls show Shea holding a small but consistent lead.”

“Democrats counter that their polls still show Tester within the margin of error for the race, and these are the types of close races he has won previously,” their assessment said. “Yet Tester has never before run in a presidential election in such a polarized environment — and even with his setbacks, Shea remains the strongest and best-financed candidate he has ever faced.”

A Republican win in the Montana Senate could give them a solid, albeit slim, majority in the 51-seat Senate.

Florida, Texas, Nebraska

However, that would require Republican incumbents in states like Florida and Texas — where it’s unclear whether the trend against Republicans will continue — to secure re-election.

That would mean blocking wild-card independent candidates in the Cornhusker State.

“It’s worth watching a unique situation develop in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborne is challenging Republican Sen. Deb Fisher,” the Cook Political Report said.

CPR also noted in its analysis that the best chances for Democrats to gain traction are Florida and Texas, which could rebalance the scales a bit.

“Today, the Lone Star State looks like the better choice because of the strength and fundraising power of the state’s Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred,” CPR wrote.

If Democrats do hold on to 50 seats, majority control will depend on which candidate wins the presidential race, regardless of victory or defeat on election night.

Given the close nature of several Senate races, it’s entirely possible that control of the Senate won’t be known until recounts in swing states.

Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat and chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in the Christian Science Monitor breakfast Last week, he had known the Democratic nominee would be running “the right race.”

“In short, I’m optimistic,” Peters said. “I believe we’re going to be in the majority. I feel good about where we’re at. We’re basically at the level where I think we’re going to be after Labor Day in very tight games. It doesn’t feel good for us. No surprise. Now we just need to execute our script, stay focused and stay disciplined.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Montana Sen. Steve Daines, believes Republicans will gain a Senate majority after the November election.

The group highlighted a Washington Post poll this week showing a tie in the Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican candidate Dave McCormick.

NRSC spokesman Philip Letsou issued a written statement after the poll was released, saying Casey is “fighting for her life… because Pennsylvania voters know about Casey’s unanimous support for Kamala Harris and her Pennsylvanians are fed up with liberal career politicians like Casey and Harris whose inflationary, anti-fracking agenda will destroy their economy.

No changes in sight for filibuster policy

A Republican gain in the minority will still require the next Republican leader to continually cut deals with Democrats, as the House is widely expected to retain the legislative filibuster.

The rule, which requires at least 60 senators to vote to advance legislation, is the main reason partisan bills are rarely discussed in the House.

If Republicans win sweeping victories in the House, Senate and White House and establish a unified government, they will have a chance to pass certain types of legislation through the expedited budget reconciliation process used to approve the 2017 tax law.

Given that Republicans will still have centrist members like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, their majorities in both chambers will determine how much they can do on this bill to balance The party has more right-wing policy objectives.